I’ve been a fan of the eBook concept for a long time, and a participant in the marketplace going back to the Palm based readers. Currently we have a range of choices that cater to just about any taste and budget. But I still see a number of problems that stem from legacy contracts and politics that are going to ensure that the Kindle platform will stay ahead of the rest. I’m less sure about the long term viability of the Kindle device in the face of the upcoming storm of multi-function tablets based on iOS, Android and WebOS though. Although Amazon’s recent crowing about Kindle sales may prove me wrong.
The key problem that I see (and live daily) is that publishers (like the recording firms) thought and (still think) that their clients were the distributors. This has resulted in a pile of silliness regarding the distribution of eBooks where online stores don’t have the right to sell into countries where they are not the licensed distributor. It’s exceedingly frustrating living in France and browsing for english eBooks only to be told at checkout that I can’t buy the book. Worse, there’s absolutely no way to find out who exactly is authorised (if anyone) to sell me the book in question.
Interestingly, it seems that Amazon has chosen the Gordian solution for Kindle books which appear to be available in all markets. (Update-I just recently spotted a few books with geographical restrictions on the Amazon store, but they remain the exception rather than the rule). I don’t know if they have managed to negotiate global distribution rights or if they are playing on some kind of internal distribution channel but I can happily buy English language Kindle books on an iPhone or and iPad from France. Unlike many of the smaller eBook sellers, I can buy (practically) anything I can find on the Kindle store, whereas I’ve tried to buy the same book from others like Books on Board, I’m told that since my credit card is domiciled in France, I can’t buy it.
In contrast, the Apple iBook Store in France has practically no English language content at all that I can find (outside of the usual public domain works). Not only that, but I haven’t been able to find any current or classic translations of science fiction or mystery authors. This wouldn’t be quite as annoying if the iBooks Store didn’t autocomplete my favorite authors only to tell me that they don’t exist in the store.
As a result, I have shifted by default behavior for eBook purchasing to Amazon Kindle books for reading on my iPad and iPhone.
Selling razorblades, not razorsAmazon is in the business of selling razorblades (the books) while the Kindle is just another handle. With the advantage that their razors can be attached to a variety of devices with the appropriate application, I think that the Kindle as a device will remain a niche item for a specific market of avid readers, but mostly as a loss leader to encourage eBook sales and push the platform.
Amazon also did the right thing with the sharing of books between devices. A purchased book can be downloaded to any Kindle platform device without surcharge. All of this resembles enormously the progression of the iTunes Music Store with the added advantage that the platform is multiple device compatible out of the gate, plus they seemed to have managed to bypass the expensive and time-consuming negotiations by individual geographic market. This is where I see Apple having significant difficulties in challenging Amazon as their current strategy appear to follow the original iTunes model where they have to negotiate (after finding them!) with a multitude of rights/distribution holders for each region.
Amazon is playing directly to the global marketplace, opening up choices and availability for everyone, where Apple and newer players like the Nook and family are by definition limited to whatever they’ve managed to negotiate and are geographically limited at each turn.
The net result as I see it is Amazon remaining the dominant force for eBook distribution, which will be reinforced with every new device with the Kindle application. This is one battle Apple isn’t going to win, but this is actually multiple markets that plays to Amazon’s and Apple’s respective strengths - Apple sells iPads and iPhones, people install the Kindle app and people buy eBook from Amazon. Apple will sell a decent number of books through the iBook Store, particularly with media rich publications that aren’t adapted to the Kindle formats, and Amazon will continue to sell lots of Kindles as dedicated devices.
But the eBook market split will look like the inverse of the iTunes Music Store vs Amazon MP3.